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Recent developments in the US Treasury market have raised concerns among financial analysts and investors. Jim Bianco, a prominent market analyst, highlighted an exceptionally rapid surge in the 30-year Treasury yield, noting a 56 basis points (bps) increase over three trading days. Anything similar like this hasn’t been seen since January 7, 1982, when yields were 14%. Bianco shared charts illustrating the 3-day change, showing recent volatility dwarfing historical norms. This likely suggests a forced unwind of the “basis trade,“ which is a strategy employed by hedge funds involving the simultaneous purchase of Treasury securities and the sale of corresponding futures contracts to exploit price discrepancies. Such an approach usually relies on substantial leverage and assumes stable market conditions. Bianco argues that this move reflects systemic stress and not human decisions, as it occurred at midnight ET. He notes that such a historic shift points to a forced liquidation, rather than deliberate rate outlook decisions by fund managers. Shortly afterward, Bianco reported the 30-year yield reaching 5%, up 67 basis points since the last 54 hours. He compares this to the 2022 Liz Truss crisis in the UK, where gilt yields surged 130 basis points in five days due to an aggressive fiscal policy. Several elements might be the cause, but it all starts with the introduction of new tariffs by Donald Trump and his administration. They officially take effect today, which has probably heightened inflationary fears and raised concerns about reduced foreign investment in US bonds. In addition, margin calls and increased volatility have compelled hedge funds to liquidate positions hastily, further destabilizing the market. There’s also some speculation about foreign entities, such as China, potentially reducing their US Treasury holdings, which has added to market apprehensions. Whatever the precise trigger, the sharp rise in Treasury yields means falling bond prices. This could lead to increased borrowing costs for the US government, as well as possibly widening the federal deficit. Not to mention that the current market turbulence has drawn parallels to past financial crises, leaving people to wonder if maybe the central bank interventions will take place to stabilize the situation. Disclaimer: The information presented in this article is for informational and educational purposes only. The article does not constitute financial advice or advice of any kind. Coin Edition is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of the utilization of content, products, or services mentioned. Readers are advised to exercise caution before taking any action related to the company.

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Bitcoin has been under increasing pressure since the return of the trade war initiated by Donald Trump. While many hoped to see the asset break free from the influence of Wall Street, reality catches up with the markets: the rise in U.S. bond yields is dampening initial enthusiasm. The correlation between bitcoin and the U.S. economy has never been more evident. Despite hopes for financial independence, cryptocurrency remains sensitive to external shocks. The recent drop of BTC below $78,000 in reaction to new U.S. tariffs is proof of this. Asian and European markets trembled, dragging bitcoin along in their wake. Analysts agree : discussing decoupling is premature. Lennix Lai from OKX emphasizes that bitcoin remains deeply integrated into global liquidity conditions. Even gold, often considered a safe haven, struggles to detach from geopolitical shocks. Cryptocurrency, still perceived as a speculative asset, is severely affected by shifts in market trends. However, some see an opportunity. Nick Ruck from LVRG Research believes that bitcoin could, in the long run, establish itself as “digital gold” once its intrinsic value is better understood. But for now, market fundamentals – mining taxes, unpredictable regulations – continue to weigh heavily. Speculation dominates, and traders react instantly. The 10-year Treasury yields have reached 4.5%, an alarming level. This rise reflects a growing distrust in U.S. debt, as well as a tightening of liquidity. For cryptocurrencies, it’s a red flag: when money becomes expensive, investors flee from risk. Peter Schiff , an economist known for his anti-Bitcoin stance, has sounded the alarm. According to him, without an immediate turnaround from the Fed, markets could face a crash comparable to 1987. A perspective that chills the blood of holders. Particularly since, as noted by Rachael Lucas, a crypto analyst, “when bonds rise and stocks fall, it signifies that financial stress is setting in”. What to do in such a context? The most optimistic believe that the current crisis could, paradoxically, strengthen bitcoin in the long term. If trade tensions were to ease, cryptocurrency could experience a spectacular rebound. The hope for a renewed interest in bitcoin is rising with the depreciation of the yuan. For now, however, the market remains under pressure. The storm is brewing, but after the rain comes the sunshine. The signals are concerning, certainly, but the history of bitcoin has already proven its resilience.