Bitcoin Price Fails To Secure $88,000, But BTC is Far From Capitulation

Bitcoin’s price has been on a steady downtrend since the end of February, consistently struggling to break above the $85,000 mark. 

While recent price action shows Bitcoin holding steady under this critical level, key investors remain undeterred. Despite the struggle, many continue to HODL, signaling long-term confidence.

Bitcoin Investors Are Optimistic

Bitcoin’s velocity, which measures the circulation of the cryptocurrency, dipped to a five-month low last week. This decline in velocity indicates that Bitcoin holders are becoming more cautious, with fewer coins being transacted. As circulation decreases, it often leads to subdued price growth, and BTC has experienced this trend recently. 

The reduced velocity reflects a shift in investor sentiment, with a general sense of hesitation among market participants. As a result, Bitcoin’s price recovery has been sluggish, and this cautious approach is reflected in current market behavior.

In contrast to the cautious short-term sentiment, mid-term holders (3-6 month holders) have seen an increase in wealth during this period. These holders are transitioning into long-term holders (LTHs), showing a shift in investor confidence. Many of these coins were acquired near Bitcoin’s all-time highs, and their continued aging suggests strong conviction among these investors. 

Spending from this cohort has reached its lowest levels since mid-2021, indicating that long-term holders are less likely to sell, even during periods of market uncertainty. This reduced selling pressure is a positive sign, as it suggests that key investors are committed to holding their positions and are not capitulating to market downturns.

Can BTC Price Recover Recent Losses?

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price stands at $83,403, sitting just below the crucial $85,000 resistance. Earlier this week, Bitcoin surged to $88,500 but experienced a decline after Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs were announced. This caused a temporary dip in market sentiment, but the price has stabilized above $80,000.

Looking ahead, Bitcoin could recover if support from long-term holders continues. However, for this to occur, $85,000 must first be reclaimed as support. A confirmed recovery would be marked by Bitcoin pushing past $89,800, signaling a potential path toward higher levels.

If the breach of $85,000 fails and circulation remains low, Bitcoin’s price could fall back to the next key support level at $80,301. Such a decline would invalidate the bullish outlook and could lead to further consolidation or bearish price action in the short term.