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International economic pressure on crypto and other assets will be unevenly spread between the US and its trading partners due to the trade war. “The tariff costs, most likely through higher inflation, will be shared by both the US and trading partners, but the relative impact will be much heavier on foreigners,” Park wrote on X on February 2. He noted that impacted nations would struggle to handle growth issues. Bitcoin may ultimately benefit, but Park predicts worldwide market misery first. Crypto would rise despite economic suffering and wealth loss from trade wars. Crypto Impact: Experts Call New Tariffs ‘Stagflationary’ In an April 2 social media statement, economist and hedge fund manager Ray Dalio called tariffs “stagflationary for the world as a whole”. He emphasized that tariffs deflate nations producing taxed items and inflate those importing them. Dalio predicts a massive financial system upheaval due to global debt and trade imbalances. The decades-old global monetary order may change with this transformation. Lower interest rates may indicate market strategy Financial watchers say economic turmoil may be purposeful. Asset manager Anthony Pompliano said that the president may be upsetting financial markets to decrease interest rates and cut US debt management costs. From 4.60% in January to 4.00% now, 10-year US Treasury bond interest rates have declined. While this method produces short-term market hardship, Pompliano believes lower interest rates will promote borrowing and raise asset values. According to this concept, Bitcoin and other risk assets may gain in the long term despite tough trade policies' immediate economic hurdles.

On April 3, 2025, Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Fund, shared his insightful views on the impact of tariffs on X, emphasizing both short-term and long-term effects on the global economy. Tier 1 Impacts (Direct Effects) Increase in tax revenue: Tariffs are shared by foreign producers and domestic consumers, with the distribution depending on price elasticity. Reduction in global production efficiency: Tariffs hinder free trade, reducing resource allocation efficiency. Global stagflation effects: For tariffed countries (exporters like China, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam) → Deflationary pressure. For tariff-imposing countries (importers like the US) → Inflationary pressure. Protection of domestic businesses: Tariffs reduce foreign competition, helping domestic businesses survive but may decrease their efficiency. Geopolitical need: During great power conflicts, tariffs help maintain domestic production capabilities. Reduced economic dependency: Tariffs reduce reliance on foreign goods and capital, especially in times of geopolitical tension. Tier 2 Impacts (Dependent on Countries' Responses) Risk of trade wars: If tariffed countries retaliate, global stagflation effects will intensify. Central bank policy adjustments: Tariffed countries → Currency devaluation, reduced interest rates (to ease deflationary pressure). Tariff-imposing countries → Currency appreciation, higher interest rates (to curb inflation). Fiscal policy adjustments: Deflationary countries → Increase fiscal stimulus. Inflationary countries → Tighten fiscal policy. Long-Term Impacts (Macro Trends) Global economic imbalances (debt, trade, capital flows) must be corrected, as the current monetary and geopolitical systems are unsustainable. Adjustments may be sudden and unconventional, like policy interventions or market fluctuations. Future economic strength depends on: The reliability of debt markets (USD's status as a reserve currency). Productivity levels of countries. Attractiveness of political and investment environments. The US Dollar Issue The USD, as a reserve currency, offers advantages (increasing demand for US bonds) but can lead to excessive borrowing and unsustainable debt. Appreciation of the Chinese RMB might be part of US-China negotiations, impacting global capital flows and monetary policies. Conclusion The impact of tariffs is complex, involving both short-term economic effects and long-term global economic structural adjustments. Ray Dalio believes that global debt and economic imbalances must be addressed, and tariffs and monetary policies will play a crucial role in the future power dynamics between nations.

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Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, has issued a stark warning about the economic impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s newly unveiled tariff policies. Dalio stated that the tariff regime could lead to a surge in global stagflation and significantly reshape U.S.- China trade relations. Dalio’s analysis, presented in a recent commentary, breaks down the “first-order” effects of tariffs. He notes that tariffs can generate revenue for the imposing country while reducing global production efficiencies. This perspective aligns with Trump’s Liberation Day speech, where he reiterated claims that revenues from tariffs made the U.S. wealthy before the introduction of income tax in 1913. The Trump administration, by imposing reciprocal tariffs on both allies and adversaries, is confident that this measure, combined with spending cuts, will quickly transform the country’s deficit into a surplus. However, critics of the Trump administration argue that the tariffs will increase prices for U.S. consumers. Others warn that these have the potential to damage international trade relationships and undermine the global trading system. The Bridgewater Associates founder meanwhile cautioned that the tariffs are inherently stagflationary, creating a complex interplay of deflationary and inflationary pressures across the globe. “Tariffs are necessary in times of an international great power conflict to assure domestic capabilities for production,” Dalio acknowledged, highlighting their strategic importance in periods of geopolitical tension. Still, he also emphasized their potential to exacerbate existing trade imbalances and increase dependencies on foreign capital, which is particularly concerning during escalating international conflicts. Meanwhile, Dalio’s concerns extend beyond the immediate impact of tariffs, delving into what he called the “second-order” consequences arising from retaliatory measures, currency fluctuations, and central bank responses. He warned that reciprocal tariffs from affected nations could trigger widespread stagflation, while monetary and fiscal policy adjustments could further complicate the economic landscape. A key point of contention in Dalio’s analysis revolves around the U.S. dollar’s status as the world’s primary reserve currency. While acknowledging the benefits of this privilege, he cautioned against its potential for abuse, citing the nation’s “over-borrowing and debt problems.” Dalio suggested a potential solution in a negotiated appreciation of the Chinese yuan renminbi (RMB), a move he believes could be mutually beneficial for both the U.S. and China. “It has been said that China’s RMB should be appreciated, which probably could be agreed to between the Americans and Chinese as part of some trade and capital deal, ideally made when Trump and Xi meet,” Dalio stated. He stressed the urgent need to address existing imbalances, warning of their “dangerously unsustainable” nature. Dalio predicted “abrupt, unconventional changes” to the current monetary, economic, and geopolitical order. Ultimately, Dalio concluded, the long-term impact of these policy changes will hinge on factors such as trust in debt and capital markets, countries’ productivity levels, and the attractiveness of their political systems for living, working, and investing. 免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到[email protected]，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。