Economist warns of a recession: Will Bitcoin and altcoins crash or rise?
Bitcoin and most altcoins have bounced back slightly this week, with total crypto market capitalization approaching the $3 trillion mark.
Bitcoin (BTC) remained stuck above $86,000, while meme coins like Pepe (PEPE), Shiba Inu (SHIB), and Floki (FLOKI) soared by double digits this week.
Mark Zandi, one of the top economists in the U.S. and Chief Economist at Moody’s, has warned that the country may be heading toward a recession.
In a post on X, Zandi said that his top recession indicator was “flashing bright yellow,” signaling a potential downturn in 2025. He pointed to a sharp drop in consumer confidence—down 17 points over the past three months.
His number one recession indicator happens when confidence drops 20 points over three months. He argues that consumers stop spending when this happens, leading to a recession. A technical recession happens when the US economy contracts for two consecutive quarters.
FYI, consumer confidence as measured by the Conference Board is down 17 points over the past 3 months. Remember my #1 recession watch indicator is that if confidence falls by 20 points over 3 months, consumers stop spending and recession ensues about 6 months later. This…
— Mark Zandi (@Markzandi) March 25, 2025
Bitcoin and altcoins would do well in a recession
A recession is a bad period for any economy as the unemployment rate rises and businesses close.
However, history shows that risky assets do well during a major downturn. For example, US stocks embarked on a decade-long bull run after the Global Financial Crisis in 2008.
Most recently, after initially falling, stocks and cryptocurrencies embarked on a strong bull run. Bitcoin surged from $4,000 in March 2020 to $69,000 in November 2021. Similarly, Ethereum jumped from a low of $80 to $4,940 in the same period.
This rebound was driven by the Federal Reserve, which has a long history of intervening during downturns through rate cuts and quantitative easing.
Risk assets tend to perform well when the Fed lowers interest rates, as cheaper capital encourages risk-on sentiment across markets. If a recession occurs, as Zandi warns, Bitcoin and other altcoins may benefit from such a macro backdrop.
At the same time, Bitcoin and other altcoins may do well if the US avoids a recession. That’s because this recession would be self-inflicted by Donald Trump’s tariffs. As such, his ending or scaling down his tariffs would also push investors back to risky assets.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
FHE is live! Bullish or bearish? Join to share 24,000 FHE!

BABY is live! Bullish or bearish? Join to share 24,000 BABY!


VIPBitget VIP Weekly Research Insights
The unique value of Proof-of-Work (PoW) tokens lies in their mining mechanism and regulatory positioning. Research shows that mining costs are a defining feature of PoW tokens, involving significant investment in hardware and electricity. When market prices approach miners' breakeven points, miners tend to hold onto their coins in anticipation of future appreciation. This behavior reduces circulating supply, shifts the supply-demand balance, and may contribute to price increases. Regulatory clarity is also critical to the investment appeal of PoW tokens. Both BTC and LTC are classified as commodities by the U.S. SEC rather than securities, which simplifies the ETF approval process. In January 2024, the approval of the BTC spot ETF triggered significant institutional inflows. LTC is currently undergoing the ETF application process. While DOGE and KAS have not yet received formal classification, their PoW nature may position them for similar treatment. Together, these factors enhance market liquidity and attract more institutional investors.

Trending news
MoreCrypto prices
More








